I’m in first place tonight in the American Dream League. By two-and-a-half points. But it is far from over. At best my odds of winning are 50-50. The Burn Bags have, in Texas Hold Em parlance, lots of outs.

For me this would be less interesting if I’d ever won the league, but I haven’t. It has been 20 years of not winning, and now with three days left I have a chance. I wrote a piece on blog.askrotoman.com last year about the meaning of winning, and the math of it. The upshot, that we’re looking at small numbers, is obvious but not very interesting.

This year I have a better story. I tried harder, and it worked. But that’s bullshit. Hot Chocolate knows that.